Blog

  • The Securitisation of Aid?

    Both in countries where fragility is widespread and in those that are more stable, there is a moral case for ensuring aid effectively addresses the insecurity many poor people face.

    To date, the international community has had only mixed success in this regard and so the recent focus on conflict and security within the development agenda is to be welcomed. But many worry that the attention being given to these issues is motivated less by a concern for ordinary people and more by the perceived security interests of donors, one aspect of what is often referred to as the ‘securitisation’ of aid.

    This briefing is aimed at the UK’s development community and does two things:

    Firstly, it distinguishes between the potential for ‘securitisation’ to influence, on the one hand,where and why aid is allocated and, on the other, how that aid is used.

    Secondly, it sets out a ‘developmental’ approach to meeting poor people’s security needs and calls on the UK’s development community to champion such a positive vision through its advocacy and programming.

    Read the report here

    Image source: Demosh

  • Global militarisation

    In March 2008, the Supreme Allied Commander Transformation called for NATO to consider “that different views of future worlds will strengthen our endeavor to develop a more rigorous and holistic appreciation for future security challenges and implications for the Alliance.”

    The result, a Multiple Futures Project (MFP), acknowledges that in a rapidly changing global security environment, the landscape we know may be very different in 2030. It puts forward four plausible worlds upon which structured dialogue on  risks and vulnerabilities can occur: Dark Side of Exclusivity, Deceptive Stability, Clash of Modernites, and New Power Politics.

    Read more »

  • Bridging the North-South divide: Sustainable Security for all

    For some years, the Oxford Research Group (ORG) has been analysing the likely underlying drivers of global insecurity over the coming years, and ways to develop sustainable responses to these threats. This analysis has focused on four trends that are expected to foster substantial global and regional instability, and large-scale loss of life, of a magnitude unmatched by other potential threats. These are climate change, competition over resources, marginalisation of the ‘majority world’ and global militarisation.

    What has become known as a ‘sustainable security’ paradigm rests on an understanding that we cannot successfully control all the consequences of these threats, but must instead work to resolve the causes. 

     The current security discourse in the West is dominated by what might be called the ‘control paradigm’: an approach based on the false premise that insecurity can be controlled through military force or balance of power politics and containment, thus maintaining the status quo. Such approaches to national, regional and international security are deeply flawed, and are distracting the world’s politicians from developing realistic and sustainable solutions to the most pressing threats facing the world.

    Sustainable security focuses on the interconnected, long-term drivers of insecurity, including: 

    • Climate change: loss of infrastructure, resource scarcity and the mass displacement of peoples, leading to civil unrest, intercommunal violence and international instability. 

    • Competition over resources: competition for increasingly scarce resources – including food, water and energy – especially from unstable parts of the world. 

    • Marginalisation of the majority world: increasing socio-economic divisions and the political, economic and cultural marginalisation of the vast majority of the world’s population. 

    • Global militarisation: the increased use of military force as a security measure and the further spread of military technologies (including chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons). 

    In a globalised world in which no nation’s security is independent of their region or of the wider international community, the opinions of the majority world can no longer be neglected by global powers who seek to dictate global security policies. The likely future drivers of insecurity do not respect national boundaries, and will not be sustainably addressed by unilateral approaches. For example, as competition over energy resources increases with depleting supplies of fossil fuels, it will become more vital that positive collaboration between consumer nations in  the West and resource-rich nations in the South occurs. 

    It is in the interests of all parties, including Western superpowers, for the voices of the majority world to be brought to the table. To this end, ORG initiated four consultations to explore the reactions of analysts in the global South to the sustainable security framework: one each covering Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia and Australasia, the Middle East and North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper synthesises the results of these four consultations, uncovering areas of commonality, and highlighting issues peculiar to their regional context.

    Read the full article here.

    Author: Hannah Brock

    Image source: WorldIslandInfo.com

  • Sustainable Security

    The Somali fishermen’s registration programme was lauched to help Somalia’s fisheries management and to secure its waters against piracy. Though commendable, the programme has yielded serious problems.

    Following the end of the civil war, the fisheries sector re-emerged as an important economic activity in Somalia, evidenced by the increase in the number of artisanal fishermen operating in the Puntland, Galmudug, and Somaliland regions. The exact number of these fishermen is unknown since neither the respective Ministries of Fisheries nor the District Fishing Associations register Somalis who fish. The lack of information on the number of fishermen, fishing fleet, services, the state of marine resources, and landings reduces the ability of decision makers to make informed decisions regarding the establishment of a robust fisheries management structure in Somalia.

    In support of the various Ministries, the United Nations Food & Agriculture Organization (FAO) is involved in projects to improve the understanding of Somalia’s fisheries sector. One of these activities is the development of a biometrics-based, artisanal fishermen -specific, registration system (Biometric Information Technology System or BITS) for the Ministry of Fisheries and Marine Resources in Puntland, Galmudug, and Somaliland.

    The data collected using BITS is expected to help formulate a more nuanced understanding of fishermen livelihoods in Somalia—which is necessary for effective fisheries management at the regional and national levels. The information can also prove useful for the government and international naval forces in the attempt to secure Somali waters against piracy and enable legitimate fishermen to operate more freely at sea.

    Piracy and Somalia

    Somali piracy and illegal, unreported, and underreported (IUU) fishing are two issues that have long been entangled in rhetoric and practice. According to the grand narrative of Somali piracy, without a government to police the coastline or prosecute offenders, Somali waters and resources were vulnerable to foreign illegal fishers. In order to protect their livelihoods, Somali fishermen took up arms against the illegal fishers as a form of retribution and/or taxation for plundering their fish and natural resources (see also Hansen, 2011; Bueger, 2013; Gilmer 2016).

    More than a decade after the perceived beginnings of Somali piracy, the grand narrative is still invoked by pirates and members of the Somali public. As artisanal fishermen, pirates, and foreign illegal fishers continue to operate within the same vast maritime spaces, inevitably, accusations of mistaken arrests began to emerge. Coastal communities claimed their fishermen were being picked up by foreign navies. Piracy prisoners held in foreign prisons maintained they were innocent fishermen who were mistaken as pirates. These stories not only raised questions of possible injustices, but they also spotlighted the issue that other than the members of Somalia’s coastal communities and local fishing organizations, no one could say for certain (or prove) who was or was not a pirate/fishermen/illegal fisher.

    Establishing a system for identifying Somalia’s maritime community, and sharing that information with international naval forces, was imagined as a starting point for more objective monitoring of Somalia’s waters (i.e., protecting against further potential injustices).

    The Somalia fishermen’s registration programme

    From 2013 to 2015, FAO utilized the BITS while conducting the Somalia fishermen’s registration programme (hereinafter referred to as the registration programme). The program is/was funded by the Trust Fund to Support the Initiatives of States to Counter Piracy off the Coast of Somalia of The Contact Group on Piracy off the Coast of Somalia (CGPCS). Collectively, the registration program consisted of three Trust Fund to Support Initiatives of States to Counter Piracy off the Coast of Somalia projects: Project #55 Fishermen Identification Database System; Project #69 Galmudug and Jubbaland Fishermen Fleet Registration; Project #70 “Somaliland” Fishermen and Fleet Registration.

    Via field officers, the Ministries collected basic information about more than 5,000 fishermen from all associations within Puntland, Galmudug, and Somaliland during face-to-face structured interviews. This data was entered into a database held by the Ministries. In 2016, a data analysis workshop was conducted in Bossaso, Somalia to “ground truth” the collected data and to discuss the overall successes and challenges of the registration program. Discussions revealed how the registration program became part of a broader struggle over the power to (re)construct the identities of people, labor niches, and maritime spaces of Somalia.

    The registration programme helped shift the site for identifying legitimate fishermen from at sea to onshore in Somalia at the various fishing landing sites where the registration exercises took place. Consequently, landing sites became the new key political sites in the struggle to define and identify legitimate fishermen. More specifically, the process of submitting/entering an individual’s data into the BITS was overseen by the heads of the local fishing associations.

    By discouraging the field officers from registering the data of pastoralists and pirates, the heads of the local fishing associations helped create a new group of maritime “others”. These “others” are considered potential criminals (i.e., pirates or illegal fishers) nand will not be afforded the same freedoms of mobilities at sea as legitimate fishermen. Indeed, by not having their data registered, these individuals were also rendered ineligible for future development programming geared towards registered fishermen.

    The data linked to those labeled legitimate fishermen is used to design future fisheries sector development programming. Those labeled legitimate fishermen become a target group for future FAO- or other agency-facilitated fisheries development projects. Maritime others, however, are left out of this development target group. As a result, the heads of the local fishing associations not only reshaped future development to exclude pirates (former or current) and pastoralists, but they may also have contributed to a future increase in piracy activity by pushing certain maritime “others” back out to sea without the occupational legitimacy/protections provided by a fishermen identification card (See Gilmer, 2017).

    Because who they are and what they are doing in maritime space remains an unknown, they must remain under the watchful eye of law enforcement. Although some individuals do, indeed, return to the sea with the intent to commit crimes, most do not. Thus, this reveals the paradox that the programme that set out to simultaneously develop and decriminalize Somali fishermen has only effectively displaced the criminalization onto a more specific maritime population of Somalis.

    Beyond the politics of submitting/entering data, the process of distributing fishermen identification cards also played an important role in reshaping future geographies of development and mobilizing certain bodies. In Puntland, government officials utilized the distribution of fishermen identification cards as leverage to bargain with FAO representatives for future planning meetings in Somalia. By securing these future planning meetings, Puntland officials were also able to secure future patronage in exchange for all-expenses-paid trips for the heads of the local fishing associations.

    The future planning meetings were also relocated from the coastline to the inland city of Garowe to maximize the FAO-provided daily service allowance each attendee (i.e., head of the local fishing association) would receive. However, moving the meetings away from the coastline greatly diminishes the likelihood that fishermen will be able to participate in any of the meetings. Thus, the fishermen and their respective communities remain on the margins of development planning for Somalia’s fisheries sector.

    Conclusion

    The Somali fishermen registration programme is commendable in that it is the first cross-regional attempt to collect data on Somalia’s artisanal fishermen and fishing livelihoods since prior to the Somalia civil war. FAO will continue to support the Ministries but the expectation at this point is that the Ministries continue to register fishermen and collect basic information. Furthermore, FAO in partnership with the Ministries, will roll out additional information systems, such as the landing site and sale system, and vessel registration system.

    These initiatives will add to the information gained from the Somalia fishermen’s registration program and continue to develop the knowledge of the fishing sector in Puntland, Galmudug, and Somaliland. However, it is also imperative to analyze the processes involved in these data collection projects to understand the politics of identity as they play out at various sites. These politics and local struggles play a key role in shaping the institutionalization of Somalia’s maritime identities and broader access to future fisheries development aid.

    Brittany Gilmer is an assistant professor in the Department of Criminal Justice at Florida International University

  • Sustainable Security

    National Security, Climate Change and the Philippine Typhoon

    Super Typhoon Haiyan made landfall in the Philippines on 8 November, and is possibly the most powerful tropical cyclone on record. Beyond the immediate impact of the typhoon, the natural disaster is already proving to be a threat to national security, with reports surfacing of massive looting and military engagement following attacks on government relief convoys. As US and UK naval convoys head to support the situation, Andrew Holland discusses climate change’s impact as a threat multiplier and what plans militaries and governments must make to prevent the insecurity that will come with future disasters of this scale.

    Read Article →

  • Environment, Energy, Economy: a threefold challenge to sustainable security

    As we turn a watchful eye toward COP16 it’s tempting to get sidetracked by other major events going on around the world. There are, after all, a host of developments which stand to have an impact on security in the immediate future and arguably, many of us have become perhaps too accustomed to placing economic and energy woes ahead of the environment on our individual lists of urgent priorities. We are, after all, in the middle of the worst global financial meltdown since the Great Depression and as banks stop lending, governments cut spending, unemployment rises, public outcry gathers momentum and as we’ve already seen in Ireland and Britain recently, even in highly-developed economies social unrest can translate into violence toward governments. We’re also running out of cheap and easy access to oil, which is “the lifeblood of modern civilization,” according to the 2005 Hirsch Report – not to mention modern militaries – and as developing countries continue to rapidly industrialise, Western governments grow weary of asymmetries in energy demand per capita as well as huge demographic shifts in population size and age, which tend to favour the East. That said, it helps to be reminded that economic and energy woes go hand-in-hand when it comes to addressing climate change. Therefore, in order for activists and government representatives alike to find common ground on which to build lasting and constructive partnerships for addressing major security threats, an interdisciplinary approach is needed that can help to elucidate how environmental, energy and economic dilemmas are deeply intertwined.  

    On April 11th, in a Joint Operating Environment report from the US Joint Forces Command, the announcement was made “that surplus oil production capacity could disappear within two years” and by 2015 “the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day.” While the Department of Energy has shied away from making similar assessments, it’s significant to note the possible relationship between declining rates of extraction, erratic fluctuations in oil prices and volatility in the wider market. At the height of the financial crisis, oil prices swung from $147 in July 2008 to $32 in late December 2008 and then back up to $70-80 from late August 2009. Chris Skrebowski, adviser to the UK’s All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil and Gas’ (APPGOPO) has said that “the credit crunch, the collapse of oil prices and uncertainty about the length and depth of recession” require investors to examine “how the recession stands to impact the trajectory of oil demand growth.”

    In his keynote address to the Chatham House Conference in London on February 1st 2010, OPEC Secretary General, Abdalla S. El-Badri highlighted the link between oil scarcity and economic recession as one in which government “concerns over security of supply” may come into conflict with “the need for a low-carbon future.” According to OPEC projections, demand for OPEC crude could be anywhere between 29 million and 37 million barrels per day by 2020. In response, El-Badri noted: “This translates into an uncertainty gap for upstream investments in OPEC Member Countries of over $250bn. There is therefore the very real possibility of wasting financial resources on unneeded capacity.”    

    How does a decline in cheap and easy access to oil coupled with an economic recession stand to impact the environment? Well, we all remember how COP15 failed to live up to the hype and while serious climate change practitioners and academics were and are perhaps too seasoned to expect miracles, Copenhagen served as an important reminder that the emergence of a legitimate international regulatory regime for GHG emissions is as far off as one to regulate cross-border capital flows or commercial and domestic fuel efficiency standards. The implications are that if leading governments and NGOs can’t broker a deal to cut carbon emissions and create incentives for renewable energy investments, private firms are left with the responsibility for generating a colossal $160 billion in capacity investment that will be required to meet rising global energy demand by 2015 and another $150 billion needed for capacity maintenance and replacement of lost capacity. Renewable energy, for many, holds the promise of a greener and brighter future in which coal, natural gas and even nuclear can be phased out. But in the context of economic stagnation in the West and rising energy demands in the East, it isn’t hard to imagine a large percentage of investment moving in the direction of what are at the moment and by comparison, low-risk endeavours.

    Whether or not ‘low risk’ to readers, can be ascribed to mountaintop removal mining in Appalachia, deep water drilling in the Gulf of Mexico or tar sands and oil shale extraction in Alberta, depends largely on one’s list of urgent priorities. If we can’t reach an intergovernmental deal to regulate GHG emissions and incentivise renewable investment (or by virtue of the same deal establish at least a regionally-competitive price for carbon that will help boost finance and innovation in carbon capture and storage), then firms are left with few options but to continue investing in fossil fuels in order to meet demand. If we can’t reach an intergovernmental deal to regulate speculative trading and irresponsible lending, then we can expect more erratic boom and bust cycles to follow after we’ve recovered from this one, standing to stifle what will become even more crucial investments in renewable technologies. Yet the present course of discourse, if you will, tends to view these issues as separate and distinct.

    Some analysts, representing both governmental and non-governmental organisations, appear convinced that economic matters have little to do with climate change and that the politics of energy supplies is not the domain of environmentalists. But if we take into consideration the myriad factors which tie energy supply and demand for fossil fuels in with rising GHG emissions and a recession that has stifled investment for much-needed innovation, then the case for a more interdisciplinary approach becomes readily apparent. From a national security standpoint, a lack of investment and innovation in renewable technologies challenges both the US and UK governments to make do with existing fossil fuel-intensive technologies, while under pressure to reduce overall expenditures. The US military in particular as the “largest single user of petrol in the world” according to BP, faces an overwhelming uphill battle in fighting two already costly wars. Meanwhile, the Joint Operating Environment report also reminds us of what has happened historically on occasions when there is serious economic upheaval: “One should not forget that the Great Depression spawned a number of totalitarian regimes that sought economic prosperity for their nations by ruthless conquest.”

    To complicate matters, a recent paper published by the Harvard Kennedy School cites ‘Mega Catastrophes,’ that may ensue in the event that average global temperatures increase by more than 4 degrees – putting pressure on both climate activists and government representatives to work more closely together in pursuit of a coordinated response. According to their most recent assessment, “melting and collapse of ice sheets in the West Antarctic or Greenland leading to drastic sea level rise (several meters over time)” could have significant and perhaps even irreversible consequences for vulnerable populations. The report goes on to note that: “Traditional responses to the risk of extreme events are of limited value in mitigating risks of a mega-catastrophe. The underlying changes in the climatic system could not be reversed over any time scale relevant for decision makers, limiting the efficacy of traditional recovery measures… Impacts could be difficult to smooth over time, even for governments.”

    Whether it’s the economy, energy or the environment which you value most, when it comes to security, each holds equal weight. If security can be defined in terms of what is or isn’t sustainable, then it must evolve to incorporate additional elements that transcend more traditional views on geopolitics. Depleting oil supplies and price volatility, vulnerability to economic shocks and climate change are all issues which are deeply interrelated. Any government in the West or the East that wishes to protect its citizens from further and/or ensuing trauma should devote ample time to coming up with more holistic models and methods for understanding the causal factors which interconnect all three. As such, I propose a new slogan for sustainable security: the three Es – ‘environment, energy, economy.’ In terms of priority, all are of equal importance to the future of modern civilizations.

    Phillip Bruner is Founder of the Green Investment Forum and a guest lecturer in global political economy at the University of Edinburgh

    Image source: NCPA Photos

  • Sustainable Security

    Sustainablesecurity.org is space to debate, discuss and develop understandings of modern insecurity within a  ‘sustainable security’ framework, which realises the interconnected underlying drivers of challenges to global security and seeks to counter them with preventive policy solutions.

    The blog is a project of the Sustainable Security programme of Oxford Research Group, originally launched in September 2009, and re-launched with a new look in 2013.

    Sustainablesecurity.org is space to debate, discuss and develop understandings of modern insecurity within a  ‘sustainable security’ framework, which realises the interconnected underlying drivers of challenges to global security in the 21st century. Through topical discussion pieces, we aim to explore the integrated, preventive policies that are needed to solve these threats at source.

    As well as covering a range of pertinent modern security challenges, the website highlights four key interconnected drivers of global insecurity:

    Articles and resources are allocated to one or more of these headings, but the overall emphasis is on the interconnected nature of these threats and the need for comprehensive, multilateral approaches to them.

    The views and opinions discussed do not necessarily reflect the views of Oxford Research Group or the Remote Control project, which collaborates with us on the Remote Control Warfare series.

    Editorial Staff

    Alasdair McKay is the Communications Officer for ORG.

    Alasdair is available at [email protected]

  • Sustainable Security

    The Ukraine conflict’s legacy of environmental damage and pollutants

    One year after violent conflict began, information is now emerging on the specific environmental impact of war in Ukraine’s highly industrialised Donbas region. Although obtaining accurate data is difficult, indications are that the conflict has resulted in a number of civilian health risks, and potentially long-term damage to its environment. In order to mitigate these long-term risks, international and domestic agencies will have to find ways to coordinate their efforts on documenting, assessing and addressing the damage.

    Read Article →

  • Sustainable Security

  • Sustainable Security

    Alex J. Bellamy is professor of peace and conflict studies at the University of Queensland. His books include Kosovo and International Society (2002), Security Communities and Their Neighbours: Regional Fortresses or Global Integrators? (2004), Understanding Peacekeeping (edited with Paul D. Williams and Stuart Griffin, 2004), International Society and Its Critics (editor, 2004), Just Wars: From Cicero to Iraq (2006), and Fighting Terror: Ethical Dilemmas (2008), and Responsibility to Protect (2009). He serves on the editorial board of Ethics & International Affairs.

    In this interview Professor Bellamy discusses the successes and failures of the Responsibility to Protect and the future of this doctrine.

    Q. The Responsibility to Protect (R2P) is commonly understood to be a global political commitment, endorsed by all Member States of the United Nations at the 2005 World Summit, to prevent genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity. Since the endorsement of this concept in 2005, how successful do you feel the international community has been in honouring this commitment?

    It all, of course, depends on what we mean by ‘success’. To text for underlying progress, I tend to use three measures:

    1. Are states more or less likely to commit atrocities? Here we’ve seen a steady decline that, of course, predates R2P (the commitment to R2P itself being a manifestation of changing international commitment to norms) – there’s been a blip in the past couple of years owing largely to Syria and South Sudan but the overall trends are still downwards and the ‘norm’ is a much lower rate of atrocities than in any other decade since WWII.
    2. Is the international community more, or less, willing to become engaged when atrocities are committed? For this, I’ve used the simple proxy of whether the UNSC passes a resolution in response to atrocity crimes (my dataset works on a threshold of 5,000 deliberately caused civilian deaths). Here we’ve seen clear progress linked to R2P – in the decade prior to R2P the council responded to around three quarters of all qualifying cases (itself up from two thirds in the 1990s), since 2005 that figure has climbed to 100%. In other words, the Council responds in some way or other to every major case of mass atrocity – that is quite a change from past practice.
    3. When the international community responds, is protection a priority? Here the change is still more noticeable. Even when the UNSC did act in times of mass atrocity, until quite recently protection was not a priority. In only around a quarter of its responses to civil wars in the 1990s was some form of protection specifically mandated. That grew to around a half in the 2000s, but has now climbed to somewhere north of 90% – i.e. Since R2P not only is the UNSC likely to respond to atrocities, it is also likely to foreground protection in that response.

    So, I think the underlying evidence is that R2P has been associated with positive shifts in international behaviour with respect to protection. That doesn’t, of course, mean that all of these responses are effective (in some senses since we are talking only of the world’s hardest and most difficult crises, we should expect a low success rate) – but if R2P is understood as a ‘responsibility to try’ to take measures at reasonable cost to protect civilians from atrocities then we have seen positive overall shifts.

    Q. Looking at a specific case of a response by the international community to a humanitarian crisis, the 2011 intervention in Libya was, at the time, heralded as a successful first true test of the R2P. In this instance, the Security Council authorized an intervention to protect civilians citing the R2P. The intervention may have stopped the massacre of civilians, but since 2011 Libya has experienced serious instability. Do you feel that the Libyan case harmed the R2P norm?

    First, I’d start with the caveat that the use of force is always controversial, whether in the name of R2P or not, and it was always going to be the case that the use of force connected to R2P would prove controversial.  Second, it is important to stress how significant Resolution 1973 was not just for R2P but for the UN Security Council – the first time in its history that it had authorised force against a de jure state for human protection purposes – this is an important precedent of principle. Third, that said, this was never going to be a precedent that would be followed very often – it was caused by a range of contingent factors unlikely to be repeated often.

    I’d agree with your assessment of the campaign itself – the intervention prevented a massacre and shortened the civil war. By doing these things, it undoubtedly saved a lot of lives. We need only look at Syria to see what happens when a country falls into protracted civil war. As unstable as Libya is today, it is better than Syria.  The problems with Libya were twofold – first, the linking of R2P with regime change, which was done for understandable domestic political reasons, muddied the international normative waters. Second, the failure to sustain the peace raised questions about the efficacy of the intervention. On the latter point, it should be stressed that the UN developed plans for a follow-on mission but these were rejected by the Libyan authorities themselves. Certainly, however, more pressure should have been brought to bear to get peacekeepers on the ground.

    As for the longer terms impacts on R2P, the effects were paradoxical. On the one hand, there was significant fallout and criticism of the campaign and the link with regime change. On the other hand and at the same time, the use of R2P has become much less controversial in the UN’s political organs. The UNSC has become much more willing to use R2P post-Libya than it was pre-Libya (in fact, subsequent to 1973, the Council issues two more resolutions on Libya itself that contained R2P) and it has even started writing R2P into mission mandates (UNMISS, MINUSMA). Other organs, such as the Human Rights Council and General Assembly have also become more actively engaged (look, for example, at the UNGA’s resolutions on Syria and DPRK).  So, what’s going on here? I think we need to distinguish R2P from the use of force. The former is, by itself, no longer considered controversial and is now a part of common working practice. The latter – whether it is related to R2P or not – remains controversial. What was controversial about Libya was not the invocation of R2P, but the manner in which force was employed. So we have some additional caution on the latter (though I firmly believe that Syria would have panned out exactly as it did had Libya not happened) – in a context where the bar was already set high – but that hasn’t stymied the progress of R2P short of coercive force.

    Q. Obama has recently said that the biggest mistake of his presidency was the lack of planning for the aftermath of Gaddafi’s ouster in Libya. Obviously, effective exit strategies which allow a transition into peace are extremely difficult things to develop. But, aside from putting more pressure on the Libyan authorities to get peacekeepers on the ground, what work could the international community have done to build peace in Libya?

    That’s a good question, that I’m not sufficiently well qualified to answer I’m afraid, being an expert on neither Libya nor peacebuilding. I would say two things, however. First, we need to be more modest in our expectations of what outsiders can achieve – incremental change is possible, but rapid development and political harmony was always going to be unlikely. Second, though, clearly the Western powers dropped the ball too rapidly and dramatically, and more could have been done to support the new authorities to establish and maintain order and facilitate political dialogue. Greater and more sustained political engagement might have helped produce better results. Also, the international community – through the UN or EU – could have looked at better options for civilian support for the new authorities.

    Q. One of the most notable, and perhaps lamentable, changes to R2P since the 2001  International Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty report, was the dropping of the ‘Responsibility to Rebuild’ – which focused on peacebuilding and exit strategies. Do you feel that getting this component of R2P back on the agenda might help avoid situations like those witnessed in Libya and, if so, how likely do you feel it would be for the international community to commit to this responsibility?   

    Good question. First, I don’t think that Libya panned out the way it did because of the absence of a responsibility to rebuild – it wasn’t that relevant actors ‘forgot’ about peacebuilding, it was simply that the political commitment, strategy and resources from both sides (Libyan and international) were not present. Second, R2P is not a stand alone principle; it exists within a broader framework of international peace and security. The World Summit may not have included a ‘responsibility to rebuild’ but it did say quite a bit about peacebuilding and established an entirely new architecture within the UN system for it — the Peacebuilding Commission. Last year we had the system wide review of that architecture and there are signs that Member States are quite responsive to, for example, broadening the scope of the Peacebuilding Commission’s work.  In terms of understanding post-intervention Libya, I’d suggest that the best lessons to be learned are those from within this peacebuilding architecture and there does seem to be a sense that the key recommendations stemming from the review have purchase in that regard. So that gets me to the third point, which is about political capital. Since 2005, and especially since 2011, the international community’s deeper consensus on R2P has been prefaced on the precise configuration agreed in 2005. I think there’s no will to consider opening that up to include peacebuilding and doing so would, I think, help neither R2P not the peacebuilding architecture. Much better, I think, to see the two as aligned parts of a common whole agreed in 2005 and to focus on learning the lessons of Libya and reforming peacebuilding as fits that rather than trying to reverse engineer the concepts.

    Q. Concerning the legacy of Libya, there have been some analyses that have argued that the Libyan case may have seriously affected the international community’s capacity to respond in a timely and effective fashion to the Syrian crisis. Do you feel that this is the case?

    Simple answer; no. I think the international response to Syria would have been pretty much the same had Libya not happened.  That’s because the factors actually driving Russian thinking, Western thinking and the positions of relevant regional actors are very much driven by Syrian related concerns and interests that would have been in play irrespective of Libya.

    Q. Looking to the future, what do you see as being the greatest challenges for R2P in the next 5-10 years?

    1. Conceptual challenges – clarifying the relationship between R2P and non-state armed groups and the relationship between the R2P, counter-terrorism and countering violent extremism policy agendas.
    2. Political challenges – the ongoing challenge of persuading states to comply with their obligations under international humanitarian law and also commit the resources and personnel needed to protect populations in need. This will be an ongoing political challenge requiring leadership and involves not just persuading cautious states to get on board but also working with committed states to deepen their engagement.
    3. Practical challenges – a) fine tuning early warning and linking it to good understandings of effective early response, so policymakers can be advised of conditions and options with greater confidence; b) developing evidence based guidance on the steps that different sorts of actors (Int Orgs, states, civil society, private sector etc.) can and ought to take to prevent atrocities; c) developing and implementing better strategies for the protection of people from imminent harm, including better approaches to displacement that puts protection at the fore.