Category: Resources

By Oxford Research Group’s Sustainable Security Programme Manager Ben Zala

Currently Latin America and the Caribbean is a region that finds itself somewhat out of the global spotlight. The region is not at the heart of the financial crisis but instead is, on the whole, a victim of the collapse of the global economy. At the end of the first decade of the ‘global war on terror’, the region has played a marginal role in the conflict and its flashpoints in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere. Even in the debates and developments in what has been termed the ‘regionalisation’ of global politics, Europe and Southeast Asia have absorbed the focus with discussion of Latin America and the Caribbean acting more as an afterthought than a key point of analysis. Yet this is unlikely to remain the case for long. In a region where poverty, militarism and environmental limits are coalescing, Latin America and the Caribbean is becoming a testing ground for responding to security challenges that are increasingly global in nature.

To address these issues, security experts, academics, journalists and civil society leaders from across Latin America and the Caribbean were brought together by ORG and the Norwegian Peacebuilding Centre (Noref) in January 2010. The meeting explored the implications of a ‘sustainable security’ framework for the region. The consultation was the fourth in a series of regional meetings held as part of ORG’s Sustainable Security Programme.

The meeting identified the regional drivers of insecurity as:

• State practices and insecurity 
• Militarisation
• Urban-rural divides and socio-economic divisions
• Environmental and energy insecurity

The blockages to achieving change in the region were identified as:

• Conceptions of security
• Historical legacies and economic models
• Regional institutions and identity

The report includes an integrated analysis of these issues, together with recommendations for policy-makers.

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Looking for leadership.pdf

Food security will remain out of reach for many people, especially women and children, in the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, or Laos, if the country continues to emphasize commodities and resources development at the expense of the environment and livelihoods while ignoring global trends for food and energy. Development might be expected to improve food security, but the indications and trends suggest otherwise. This is the paradox of food security in Laos.

This working paper was conceived as a meta-study to provide a strategic view of the situation in the Lao PDR drawing on data and findings from dozens of field studies, which were subsequently analyzed in the light of local and global trends and developments to synthesize fresh insights and an assessment of the outlook for food security plus scenarios and options. Boundaries drawn up for the study precluded consideration of the complexities of climate change.

To receive the full report, please email the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC): [email protected]

Image source: danou_info

Global warming is moving much more quickly than scientists thought it would. Even if the biggest current and prospective emitters – the United States, China and India – were to slam on the brakes today, the earth would continue to heat up for decades.

At best, we may be able to slow things down and deal with the consequences, without social and political breakdown. In this three-part series for Canadian radio, Gwynne Dyer examines several radical short- and medium-term measures now being considered – all of them controversial.

Listen to the podcast here:

• Part 1
• Part 2
• Part 3

In today’s transnational world, a sustainable national security policy cannot be achieved through national capabilities alone. Sustainable national security instead rests on three pillars: 1) a multi-sum security principle based on justice at all levels, multilateralism and multidimensionality (including human, environmental, national, transnational and transcultural/transcivilizational security); 2) symbiotic realism in international relations, whereby mutual cooperation among states results in non-conflictual absolute gains; and 3) transcivilizational synergy which results from mutual respect, multiculturalism, cosmopolitanism and cross-fertilization, and will lead to global justice, security and prosperity. This is essential reading for anyone interested in an innovative approach to the complex yet central subject of sustainable national security.

Purchase book here. 

In the Lowy Institute’s latest Strategic Snapshot, International Security Program Associate Ashley Townshend explores the strategic dynamics between China and India in the Indian Ocean. While the potential for rivalry exists, Mr Townshend argues that the combination of a skewed distribution of capabilities and collective interest in stability, together with a range of enhanced confidence-building mechanisms, should go a long way to dampening the region’s underlying competitive impulses.

Source: Lowy Institute For International Policy

Image source: Swami Stream

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Townshend, Sino-Indian maritime relations_web.pdf

Climate change will have serious environmental, socio-economic and security consequences for both developed and developing nations alike. This report explores these consequences and demonstrates that they will present new challenges to governments trying to maintain domestic stability. Those agencies tasked with protecting and sustaining national security will need to adapt to better cope with a changing global environment.

However, if governments simply respond with traditional attempts to maintain the status quo and control insecurity they will ultimately fail. As this report shows, the risks of climate change demand a rethink of current approaches to security and the development of sustainable ways of achieving that security, with an emphasis on preventative rather than reactive strategies.

Download in English or Spanish as PDF

The Middle East and North Africa is a region of great diversity. It encompasses Arab and many other ethnic populations, theocratic and secular states, democracies and authoritarian regimes. A region of immense wealth and crippling poverty; it is blessed (some might say cursed) with vast resources, not least oil, but has not always proved able to manage them for the benefit of ordinary people. While it is often viewed from the outside as a source of terrorism and conflict, the regional perception is one of foreign occupation and other external interference.

This report is based on the outcomes of a consultation that Oxford Research Group (ORG) and the Institute for Peace Studies (IPS) held in Egypt in October 2008. Bringing together security experts, academics, government officials and civil society leaders from across the Middle East and North Africa, the two-day meeting explored the implications of the sustainable security framework for the region.

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Climate-related displacement is one of the key challenges facing South Asia in the coming decades. Although there is considerable debate about the salience of the term ‘climate refugees’ and extent to which climate change is a primary cause of forced displacement, there is no doubt that large numbers of people are already having to cope with the impact of environmental changes on their livelihoods and everyday life.

Image source: planet a

Working paper source: La Trobe University

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Climate-Related Displacement and Human Security in South Asia.pdf

‘The sheer scale and chaotic construction of the favelas, which became home to hundreds of thousands of migrants, made them the ideal milieu for drug gangs to hide from the police and set up initially paternalistic, de-facto governments, albeit without any concrete political aims.’

This report explores the human insecurity issues that stem from rapid urbanisation, poverty, cultures of violence and ineffective governance.

Source: IRIN News

Image source: Tony the misfit

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TomorrowsCrisesToday-Chapter6.pdf

The World Development 2010 climate Change Report published in September outlines how a 2 degree centigrade rise in global temperature would likely cost Africa 4% of GDP whilst the impact on India would be %5 of GDP. Developing countries are already disproportionately impacted by climate change with 80% of the worlds population located in the developing world.

As the report states:

“Solving the climate problem requires a transformation of the world’s energy systems in the coming decades.   Research and Development investments on the order of US$100 – $700 billion annually will be needed—a major increase from the modest $13 billion a year of public funds and $40 billion to $60 billion a year of private funds currently invested. 

Developing countries, particularly the poorest and most exposed, will need assistance in adapting to the changing climate. Climate finance must be greatly expanded, since current funding levels fall far short of foreseeable needs. Climate Investment Funds (CIFs), managed by the World Bank and implemented jointly with regional developing banks, offer one opportunity for leveraging support from advanced countries, since these funds can buy-down the costs of low-carbon technologies in developing countries.”

The report is published at an important juncture as world leaders begin positioning themselves in the run-up to negotiations at Copenhagen.

The full report can be downloaded here. 

This Food Policy Report presents research results that quantify climate-change impacts, assess the consequences for food security and estimate the investments that would offset the negative consequences for human well-being.

The analysis brings together, for the first time, detailed modeling of crop growth under climate change with insights from an extremely detailed global agriculture model, using two climate scenarios to simulate future climate. The results of the analysis suggest that agriculture and human well-being will be negatively affected by climate change.
 

See front page article.

This excellent report by International Alert examines the growing risk of armed conflict as a result of climate change now being experienced by some of the most fragile regions of the world, and reveals the alarming consequences of continued inaction to enable affected countries to adapt to the consequences of climate driven changes on their populations.

Taken from the introduction:

This paper outlines the climate-conflict interlinkages and the challenges involved in responding to their combined challenge. Establishing the overall goal of international policy on adaptation as helping people in developing countries adapt successfully to climate change even where there is
state fragility or conflict risk, the paper makes and explains eight specific policy recommendations.

To redirect to the International Alert weblink for this report please click here.

Attach PDF: 

Full report available here as a PDF

The article investigates the inter-relation between armed conflict and natural resources and its implications for conflict resolution and peacebuilding.

Since changing the natural and geographical characteristics of natural resources is almost impossible, the article argues that conflict resolution and peacebuilding policies should be aimed to reduce those political, societal and economic situations that, if inter-related with the presence of natural resources in a country, can affect armed conflicts. The analysis discusses how the presence of natural resources should be addressed during the resolution of a conflict and should be considered during the post-conflict peacebuilding phase. Finally, it tries to identify how international actors can have an effective role in conflict resolution and peacebuilding when natural resources are at stake.

Article source: Journal of Peace, Conflict and Development

Image source: Tim Pearce

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A Study on the Inter-Relation between Armed Conflict and Natural Resources and its Implications for Conflict Resolution and Peacebuilding.pdf

In this Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) Policy Brief, Kaja Borchgrevink & Kristian Berg Harpviken explore claimed links between Taliban militancy and religious education in Afghan and Pakistani madrasas.

Access the report online at the PRIO website

Image source Rizwan Sagar

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PRIO Policy Brief_Teaching Religion Taming Rebellion_ Afghan madrasa reform.pdf

CNA Corporation, a US Department for Defense funded think-tank, published this report in April 2007. The report was produced by CNA’s writers and researchers under the guidence of a Military Advisory Board (MAB) consisting of retired admirals and generals. 

The report includes several formal findings:

►Projected climate change poses a serious threat to America’s national security.

►Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world.

►Projected climate change will add to tensions even in stable regions of the world.

►Climate change, national security and energy dependence are a related set of global challenges.

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On February 25, 2009, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) launched the “Transatlantic Dialogue on Climate Change and Security”, funded by a grant from the European Commission, with the purpose of analyzing the impact of climate change on global security and stability. The dialogue has included some of the foremost environmental and security experts from government, including the military and intelligence communities, academia, international organizations, and the private sector. The results, presented here, are intended to inform policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic on how to most effectively address climate change.

Source: IISS

Image source: UNISDR Photo Gallery

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Transatlantic Dialogue on Climate Change and Security.pdf

A three-part BBC documentary series, written and produced by Adam Curtis. The films compare the rise of the neo-conservative movement in the United States and the radical Islamist movement, making comparisons on their origins and claiming similarities between the two.

More controversially, it argues that the threat of radical Islamism as a massive, sinister organised force of destruction, specifically in the form of al-Qaida, is a myth perpetrated by politicians in many countries – and particularly American neo-conservatives – in an attempt to unite and inspire their people following the failure of earlier, more utopian ideologies.

Link to three parts on Google Video:

• Part 1: Baby It’s Cold Outside
• Part 2: The Phantom Victory
• Part 3: The Shadows in the Cave

This paper from Alex Evans of the Center on International Cooperation at New York University provides a brief assessment of how natural resource scarcity and global climate change may change the risk of violent conflict in the future.

Image source: United Nations Photo

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Resource Scarcity, Climate Change and the Risk of Violent Conflict.pdf

Many leading military analysts in the United States are increasingly alert to the link between security and climate change. Is international terrorism really the single greatest threat to world security?

Since the 9/11 attacks, many Western governments assume terrorism to be the greatest threat we face. In response, their dangerous policies attempt to maintain control and keep the status quo by using overwhelming military force. This important book shows why this approach has been such a failure, and how it distracts us from other, much greater, threats:

• Climate change
• Competition over resources
• Marginalisation of the majority world
• Global militarisation

Unless urgent, coordinated action is taken in the next 5-10 years on all these issues it will be almost impossible to avoid the earth becoming a highly unstable place by the middle years of this century. Beyond Terror offers an alternative path for politicians, journalists and concerned citizens alike.

For more information or to buy the book please click here. 

This website presents an extensive database of the latest news, analysis and information on a variety of international issues. There are currently over 2,000 articles available covering issues ranging from globalization to poverty, climate change, people power and much more.

The objectives of Share the World’s Resources are

1. To raise awareness of how and why the dominant international economic and political systems are incapable of ending poverty, creating a sustainable economy, or mitigating climate change.

2. To propose an alternative sustainable economic framework based on international cooperation and the sharing of essential resources.

3. To campaign for governments around the world to initiate global economic reform and to share essential resources in order to immediately secure basic human needs for all.

This major report was the result of an 18-month long research project examining the various threats to global security, and sustainable responses to those threats.

Current security policies assume international terrorism to be the greatest threat to global security, and attempt to maintain the status quo and control insecurity through the projection of military force. The authors argue that the failure of this approach has been clearly demonstrated during the ‘war on terror’ and it is distracting governments from the real threats that humanity faces.

Unless urgent action is taken within the next five to ten years, it will be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to avoid a highly unstable global system by the middle years of the century.

Download in English or Spanish as a PDF

Trans-boundary collaboration over the issue of shared water is critical since water is scarce in most areas. Today, the Himalayan region is facing severe water stresses. To overcome the challenge, there is a need to promote Himalayan Sub-Regional cooperation to ensure water security and a climate of peace and progress. There is no alternative to cooperation in view of the retreat of glaciers, resulting decline in river flows in parts of the region and flooding in other parts, tectonic changes in the Himalayan region, threat to food security and the risk of increase in inequity. A cooperative and open approach to Himalayan rivers, starting with new fundamentals has become imperative in this regard.

In this backdrop, BIPSS hosted the Second International Workshop on “Himalayan Sub-regional Cooperation for Water Security” in Dhaka on January15-16, 2010 in collaboration with the Strategic Foresight Group, India.

Speaker presentations, participant lists and previous reports are available here.

Sub-Saharan Africa is too readily dismissed from the outside, but the regional perception is often one of optimism. It is an area rich in natural resources: ranging from oil and natural gas to other minerals such as chrome, nickel and zinc. Nearly half the population are under the age of 14, making the region free from the demographic burden of an ageing workforce prevalent in other parts of the world. There are also promising beginnings to regional approaches to tackling shared security problems; with the draft framework for a Common African Defence and Security Policy being a good example of this.

However, it is undeniable that sub-Saharan Africa does face considerable difficulties. It contains only 10% of the world’s population but is the location of 90% of world malaria cases and home to 67% of world HIV sufferers. Conflict, famine, genocide and disease have all plagued the region over recent decades. Of all the regions of the developing world, sub-Saharan Africa remains the most marginalised and least likely to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. Colonial powers, corrupt leaders and, to an extent, the NGO/aid complex have all contributed to the region’s difficulties.

This report is based on the outcomes of a consultation that Oxford Research Group (ORG) and the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) held in South Africa in December 2008. Bringing together security experts, academics, former government officials and civil society leaders from across sub-Saharan Africa, the two-day meeting explored the implications of the sustainable security framework for the region.

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Humanity appears caught in a trap with no way out. ‘Business as usual’ is no longer an option. However, halting and reversing our consumption of more and more ‘stuff’ appears likely to trigger a massive depression with serious unemployment and poverty. This is certainly true if all we do is ‘apply the brakes’ without fundamentally redesigning the whole economic system. We are facing a series of interlinked systemic problems – consuming beyond our planetary limits; untenable inequality; growing economic instability and a breakdown in the relationship between ‘more’ and ‘better’. The only way to overcome these systemic problems is through a set of solutions which themselves address the whole.

In this report we have sketched out how, in the light of these challenges we face as a country and as a world, things could ‘turn out right’ by 2050. We have focused particularly on the UK, but many of the solutions we outline apply globally. We have called the process by which this could happen the Great Transition as a deliberate echo of The Great Transformation, written by Karl Polanyi in the 1940s. While in a relatively short report such as this we could not hope to achieve anything remotely comparable to Polanyi’s great work, the scale of the change we need to see is at least the equal of the changes he described.

Document source: the new economics foundation

Image source: Matt from London

Attach PDF: 

The Great Transition.pdf

In Global Warring: how environmental, economic and political crises will redraw the world map, Cleo Paskal combines climate research and interviews with geopolitical strategists and military planners, to identify the environmental problems that are most likely to start wars, destroy economies and create failed states. 

Global Warring is available for purchace from palgrave macmillan.

Persistent calls for clear and transparent information on Sudan’s oil revenues have yet to yield satisfactory information, says a new report published by Global Witness today. With a referendum on independence for southern Sudan just days away, oil sector transparency is now more important than ever to preserving the fragile peace between north and south.

Author: Global Witness

Image source: L C Nottaasen

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Crude Calculations – The Continued Lack of Transparency over Oil in Sudan.pdf

This case study explores the potential impact of climate change on security and conflict in Bangladesh. As international researchers have started to make the link between climate change, insecurity and conflict, they have raised concerns that Bangladesh’s extreme vulnerability to the environmental effects of climate change may create conditions that put it at risk of greater insecurity and possible conflict. It is therefore important to analyse this issue in detail, in order to identify how serious the risk is and what can be done to address it.

Published by Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies and Saferworld

Image source: Julie Lindsay

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Climate Change and Security in Bangladesh.pdf

A new SIPRI report highlights the limitations of United Nations attempts to control the flows of arms into Somalia, and the role of potential arms-supplying states.

Author: Pieter D. Wezeman

Source: SIPRI

Image source: Michael

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Arms Flows and the Conflict in Somalia.pdf